Leading Edge Policy & Strategy
Thinking About the Future of Health Care and Health Information Technology Policy
A) Purpose and Context of CBO Scoring
B) Components of Costs
C) Components of Savings
D) Components of Revenues
E) Effects on Deficit
F) Number of Insured
E) Effects on Deficit
This page has not yet been updated to include the CBO scoring of the new House health care bill, H.R. 3962

All figures presented below are based on CBO cost estimates which can be found here:


  • According to CBO and JCT’s assessment, enacting the Chairman’s mark, as amended, would result in a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $81 billion over the 2010–2019 period (see Table 1). The estimate includes a projected net cost of $518 billion over 10 years for the proposed expansions in insurance coverage. That net cost itself reflects a gross total of $829 billion in credits and subsidies provided through the exchanges, increased net outlays for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and tax credits for small employers; those costs are partly offset by $201 billion in revenues from the excise tax on high-premium insurance plans and $110 billion in net savings from other sources. The net cost of the coverage expansions would be more than offset by the combination of other spending changes that CBO estimates would save $404 billion over the 10 years and other provisions that JCT and CBO estimate would increase federal revenues by $196 billion over the same period.1 In subsequent years, the collective effect of those provisions would probably be continued reductions in federal budget deficits. Those estimates are all subject to substantial uncertainty.” (Source)
$81 billion [net reduction in federal deficit from Senate Finance mark] = $518 billion [net cost of expansions in insurance coverage] - $404 billion [savings from spending changes] - $196 billion [additional federal revenues]
  • According to CBO and JCT’s assessment, enacting H.R. 3962 would result in a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $104 billion over the 2010–2019 period. [...] The estimate includes a projected net cost of $894 billion over 10 years for the proposed expansions in insurance coverage. That net cost itself reflects a gross total of $1,055 billion in subsidies provided through the exchanges (and related spending), increased net outlays for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and tax credits for small employers; those costs are partly offset by $167 billion in collections of penalties paid by individuals and employers. On balance, other effects on revenues and outlays associated with the coverage provisions add $6 billion to their total cost. (Source)
$104 billion [net decrease in federal deficit from H.R. 3962] = $894 billion [10-year projected cost of insurance coverage provisions] - $426 [net savings from spending changes] - $572 billion [additional revenues from income tax surcharge and other tax provisions]




****All figures above are based on CBO cost estimates which can be found here:***

 

"It is important to note that the figures presented here do not represent a complete cost estimate for the coverage provisions of the legislation. They reflect specifications provided by the committee staff rather than detailed analysis of the legislative language. They do not include certain costs that the government would incur to administer the proposed changes and the impact of the bill’s provisions on other federal programs. Nevertheless, the estimates reflect the major net budgetary effects of H.R. 3200 [and the Senate Finance Bill]. " (Source)

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